Meteorological mast measurements have been wind energy industry’s standard measurement practice for wind resource assessment since 1980s. The first wind energy specific lidar technology solutions came to market during 2000s and early adopter visionaries prophesized that lidars will replace met mast during next 10 years (so by 2015) because lidar campaigns are easier, faster and cheaper than masts and the HSE risks are substantially lower making the lidar on paper a true win-win-win solution.
However, a revolutionary lidar breakthrough did not happen by 2015. But now in 2025, we think the lidar breakthrough is more realistic and thus we are re-using the old prophecy again.
Our vision: Within next 10 years, 80 % all of wind resource measurements in Nordics and Baltics are done with standalone lidar
When this vision becomes true, the Nordic and Baltic level project development cost savings are 6-18 M€ per year assuming 30-90 new campaigns are started yearly. Once the turbulence intensity (TI) acceptability takes its final big approval steps with turbine manufacturers: goodbye wind measurements masts!
Here are the main things that have changed since 2015 and why we think this time the prophecy will hold.
Industry consensus exists that lidar wind speed measurement accuracy is cup-equivalent at non-complex sites
This is based on our extensive industry-wide discussions and well as the latest lidar-friendly additions to the upcoming international standard IEC 61400-50-2 on energy yield assessment tentatively released in 2026. The new Vaisala and ZX lidar classifications up to 200 m are both showing very low wind measurement uncertainty supporting the story of highly accurate lidar performance. For complex terrain sites, CFD modelling is required.
Lidar measurement bankability is already there for Germany, UK and Ireland
Some countries are missing from this list so the list is too short. Clearly some market areas have tackled the standalone lidar bankability question so this will get solved for Nordic and Baltic flat-forest sites in near future too.
The cost of met masts increases exponentially while lidar costs do not
A met mast campaign is typically the most expensive single item during the project development phase of a wind farm. A lidar 12-month campaign is roughly 3 x cheaper that a 170 m mast campaign in Nordics. The positive lidar business case for small wind farms and high hub heights is the clearest as met mast costs increase exponentially with height.
One main challenge remains: lidar turbulence intensity (TI) and site suitability
Met mast cup measured TI is one of the main predictors of wind turbine key component fatigue loads and thus component lifetime estimates during a site suitability assessment. It is perfectly understandable that turbine manufacturers are careful when moving from historical cup TI legacy to the new laser beam world of TI. This is a big ship to turn but during last 2 years, we have seen positive movement that did not exists 4 years ago. We believe that within 4 years, most wind measurements campaigns in the Nordics and Baltics will have a better return on investment (ROI) using a lidar instead of a met mast.
It will take acts of bravery and trust from project developers to switch from familiar masts to exciting lidars. But huge costs savings are waiting around the corner. How long can You wait to save 200 000 € in development costs per project?
We are happy to discuss this topic more with you so do not hesitate to contact us!
https://www.vindteknikk.com/contact/
Ville Lehtomäki
Managing director
Kjeller Vindteknikk Oy
Pyry Pentikäinen
Senior Adviser